The Paradox Of Unanimity: When Intuition Is Badly Informed
Tuesday, October 7, 2003
This article past times Lisa Zyga summarizes a forthcoming Lachlan J. Gunn, et al article inward Proceedings of The Royal Society A, "Too proficient to endure true: when overwhelming testify fails to convince." It offers unopen to interesting thoughts. This is a useful discussion, particularly for those inward leadership positions. See, especially, #5 below.
Excerpts from the article:
Under ancient Jewish law, if a suspect on lawsuit was unanimously flora guilty past times all judges, in addition to then the suspect was acquitted. This reasoning sounds counterintuitive, but the legislators of the fourth dimension had noticed that unanimous understanding ofttimes indicates the presence of systemic error inward the judicial process, fifty-fifty if the exact nature of the error is however to endure discovered. They intuitively reasoned that when something seems every bit good proficient to endure true, most probable a fault was made.
The researchers demonstrated the paradox inward the instance of a modern-day constabulary line-up, inward which witnesses travail to position the suspect out of a line-up of several people. The researchers showed that, every bit the grouping of unanimously agreeing witnesses increases, the peril of them existence right decreases until it is no amend than a random guess.
In constabulary line-ups, the systemic error may endure whatever form of bias, such every bit how the line-up is presented to the witnesses or a personal bias held past times the witnesses themselves. Importantly, the researchers showed that fifty-fifty a tiny fleck of bias tin mail away possess got a really large bear upon on the results overall.
The paradox of unanimity may endure counterintuitive, but the researchers explicate that it makes feel i time nosotros possess got consummate information at our disposal.
"As amongst most 'paradoxes,' it is non that our intuition is necessarily bad, but that our intuition has been badly informed," Abbott said.
Other areas where the paradox of unanimity emerges are numerous in addition to diverse.
1) The recent Volkswagen scandal is a proficient example. The companionship fraudulently programmed a estimator chip to run the engine inward a manner that minimized diesel emissions during emission tests. But inward reality, the emissions did non come across standards when the cars were running on the road. The depression emissions were every bit good consistent in addition to 'too proficient to endure true.' The emissions squad that outed Volkswagen initially got suspicious when they flora that emissions were almost at the same bird whether a auto was novel or 5 years old! The consistency betrayed the systemic bias introduced past times the nefarious estimator chip.
2) A famous instance where overwhelming testify was 'too proficient to endure true' occurred inward the 1993-2008 period. Police inward Europe flora the same woman individual deoxyribonucleic acid inward almost fifteen law-breaking scenes across France, Germany, in addition to Austria. This mysterious killer was dubbed the Phantom of Heilbronn in addition to the constabulary never flora her. The deoxyribonucleic acid testify was consistent in addition to overwhelming, however it was wrong. It turned out to endure a systemic error. The cotton fiber swabs used to collect the deoxyribonucleic acid samples were accidentally contaminated, past times the same lady, inward the mill that made the swabs.
3) When a authorities wins an election, i laments that the political party of one's selection ofttimes wins amongst a relatively pocket-size margin. We ofttimes wishing for our favored political political party to win amongst unanimous votes. However, should that ever hand off nosotros would endure led to suspect a systemic bias caused past times vote rigging.
4) In science, theory in addition to experiment larn manus inward manus in addition to must back upwards each other. In every experiment at that spot is e'er 'noise,' in addition to nosotros must thence await unopen to error. If results are every bit good build clean in addition to practise non comprise expected dissonance in addition to outliers, in addition to then nosotros tin mail away endure led to suspect a bird of confirmation bias introduced past times an experimenter who cherry-picks the data.
5) In many commission meetings, inward today's large organizations, at that spot is a vogue towards the thought that decisions must endure unanimous. For example, a commission that ranks chore applicants or evaluates telephone commutation functioning indicators (KPIs) ofttimes volition fighting until everyone inward the room is inward agreement. If i or 2 members are inward disagreement, at that spot is a vogue for the residue of the commission to win them over earlier moving on. A take-home message of our analysis is that the dissenting vocalisation should endure welcomed. A wise commission should convey that divergence of sentiment in addition to precisely tape at that spot was a disagreement. The recording of the disagreement is non a negative, but a positive that demonstrates that a systemic bias is less likely.
Excerpts from the article:
Under ancient Jewish law, if a suspect on lawsuit was unanimously flora guilty past times all judges, in addition to then the suspect was acquitted. This reasoning sounds counterintuitive, but the legislators of the fourth dimension had noticed that unanimous understanding ofttimes indicates the presence of systemic error inward the judicial process, fifty-fifty if the exact nature of the error is however to endure discovered. They intuitively reasoned that when something seems every bit good proficient to endure true, most probable a fault was made.
The researchers demonstrated the paradox inward the instance of a modern-day constabulary line-up, inward which witnesses travail to position the suspect out of a line-up of several people. The researchers showed that, every bit the grouping of unanimously agreeing witnesses increases, the peril of them existence right decreases until it is no amend than a random guess.
In constabulary line-ups, the systemic error may endure whatever form of bias, such every bit how the line-up is presented to the witnesses or a personal bias held past times the witnesses themselves. Importantly, the researchers showed that fifty-fifty a tiny fleck of bias tin mail away possess got a really large bear upon on the results overall.
The paradox of unanimity may endure counterintuitive, but the researchers explicate that it makes feel i time nosotros possess got consummate information at our disposal.
"As amongst most 'paradoxes,' it is non that our intuition is necessarily bad, but that our intuition has been badly informed," Abbott said.
Other areas where the paradox of unanimity emerges are numerous in addition to diverse.
1) The recent Volkswagen scandal is a proficient example. The companionship fraudulently programmed a estimator chip to run the engine inward a manner that minimized diesel emissions during emission tests. But inward reality, the emissions did non come across standards when the cars were running on the road. The depression emissions were every bit good consistent in addition to 'too proficient to endure true.' The emissions squad that outed Volkswagen initially got suspicious when they flora that emissions were almost at the same bird whether a auto was novel or 5 years old! The consistency betrayed the systemic bias introduced past times the nefarious estimator chip.
2) A famous instance where overwhelming testify was 'too proficient to endure true' occurred inward the 1993-2008 period. Police inward Europe flora the same woman individual deoxyribonucleic acid inward almost fifteen law-breaking scenes across France, Germany, in addition to Austria. This mysterious killer was dubbed the Phantom of Heilbronn in addition to the constabulary never flora her. The deoxyribonucleic acid testify was consistent in addition to overwhelming, however it was wrong. It turned out to endure a systemic error. The cotton fiber swabs used to collect the deoxyribonucleic acid samples were accidentally contaminated, past times the same lady, inward the mill that made the swabs.
3) When a authorities wins an election, i laments that the political party of one's selection ofttimes wins amongst a relatively pocket-size margin. We ofttimes wishing for our favored political political party to win amongst unanimous votes. However, should that ever hand off nosotros would endure led to suspect a systemic bias caused past times vote rigging.
4) In science, theory in addition to experiment larn manus inward manus in addition to must back upwards each other. In every experiment at that spot is e'er 'noise,' in addition to nosotros must thence await unopen to error. If results are every bit good build clean in addition to practise non comprise expected dissonance in addition to outliers, in addition to then nosotros tin mail away endure led to suspect a bird of confirmation bias introduced past times an experimenter who cherry-picks the data.
5) In many commission meetings, inward today's large organizations, at that spot is a vogue towards the thought that decisions must endure unanimous. For example, a commission that ranks chore applicants or evaluates telephone commutation functioning indicators (KPIs) ofttimes volition fighting until everyone inward the room is inward agreement. If i or 2 members are inward disagreement, at that spot is a vogue for the residue of the commission to win them over earlier moving on. A take-home message of our analysis is that the dissenting vocalisation should endure welcomed. A wise commission should convey that divergence of sentiment in addition to precisely tape at that spot was a disagreement. The recording of the disagreement is non a negative, but a positive that demonstrates that a systemic bias is less likely.